Tuesday, February 17, 2015

March Madness Projections

As the season starts to wind down in February, and the NCAA tourney begins to heat up, there are many story lines being brought into play. The Kentucky Wildcats are looking to enter the tournament undefeated, which would be the best feat for a college basketball team in over several decades. The contributed success could be given to the stacked lineup, which has an NCAA leading 9 upcoming NBA players. The system implemented for the Kentucky program insures equal playing time as well as a strong balance on the defensive and offensive sides of the game.

Virginia is currently 2nd in the nation behind the top defense in the NCAA. All year long, they been near the top of the AP top 25 rankings after starting the season 19-0, a late January loss to the Duke Blue Devils dropped them two spots to number 4. Virginia is one of the hottest teams in the country right now, and they look to continue their hot streak into the NCAA tourney.

Gonzaga is currently ranked 3rd in the rankings, and may be considered one of the most surprising teams in the top 5. However, a star studded back court that includes Kevin Pangos have propelled them to a 26-1 start.

Duke is ranked 4th in the country. Many argue that duke should be ranked higher in the standings because of their success this season against top 10 ranked teams this season, but 2 bad losses keep them out of the top 3 spots. The bright spot for the Blue Devils this season have been Jahlil Okafor, who solidified himself as the top scoring big man in the NCAA, and star guards Quinn Cook and Justice Winslow who have combined to score nearly 24 points per game.

Villanova has emerged as the quietest top 5 team in the rankings as the season slowly begins to wind down. They have received the fewest criticism thus far in the season, and their experienced team helped them to a 24-2 start to the season. Up and down the lineup the roster is stellar, which only got better as the season progressed. The play of Pinkston and Ochefu have considered Nova to have the most feared front court in the NCAA.

March Madness Projections
1 seeds Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Villanova
Each of these teams played well in stronger schedules and conferences, which is why Gonzaga will be seed #2.
2 seeds Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Arizona, Kansas
3 seeds Notre Dame, Louisville, Utah, Wichita State
4 seeds Maryland, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Arkansas
5 seeds Oklahoma, North Carolina, SMU, Ohio State
6 seeds West Virginia, Baylor, VCU, Butler

Who squeaks in?
1 Seton Hall
The upset against Villanova earlier in the season could prove to be enough to get them in the tournament. Expect a 9 seed.
2 Providence
Providence played a tough schedule this year, but through the years, a strong finish to the season has propelled them into the tournament. They are currently outside the bubble looking in at 18-8
3 Temple
They are currently 19-7 but a few key wins can get them back into the tourney. The most notable upset this season: Kansas Jayhawks.

Biggest Snubs: Who is out?
1 Florida
After having a great season last year, and doing well in the tournament last year, the Gators failed to replace Scottie Wilbekin and now see their hopes of getting in go down the tubes. Gators are currently under .500 for the first time in several years
2 UCONN
The reigning National Champs have had a disappointing season following tough losses to unranked teams. Unless the Huskies do well in the conference tournament, they are most likely out of the picture this season.
3 Michigan
Following the departure of player of the year canidate Nik Stauskus last season, the Wolverines struggles against a dominant Big 10 conference. In the NCAA tournament last season, the hot end to the season helped them into the elite 8.